Opening the Floodgates

originally published May 14, 2008

Sen. Johnny Isakson upset the applecart when he announced last week that he will run for another term in the Senate two years from now rather than come home and run for governor. That was a surprise to the political community, which had widely expected him to clear out the field in the next governor’s race. It was also a disappointment to the Atlanta business community, whose leadership desperately wanted Isakson to get elected governor and start doing something - anything - to address the traffic congestion problems that Gov. Sonny Perdue has blithely ignored for the past six years.

But Johnny made what he obviously thought was the best decision for him and his family. It could be that he looked at the squabbling that has engulfed the current governor and the legislative leadership for the past two years and decided that he wanted no part of that. I can’t say that I blame him.

Isakson’s move opens the floodgates for other candidates to jump into what will be a very crowded race where the only declared candidate so far is state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.

Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Karen Handel, House Majority Leader Jerry Keen, and U.S. Reps. Lynn Westmoreland and Jack Kingston are among those whose names are coming up in discussions of candidates for the Republican primary.

House Speaker Glenn Richardson’s name has been mentioned frequently as well, but he could decide there’s more political power to be had by remaining speaker - especially since the Democrats’ inability to recruit challengers to Republican legislators ensures that the GOP won’t lose many, if any, state House seats this year. (Isakson’s exit from the governor’s race could open up opportunities for Democrats as well. House Minority Leader DuBose Porter (D-Dublin) had indicated he would pass up the governor’s race if Isakson ran - but he might get back in now that Isakson is out. Former governor Roy Barnes will also be asked to take a look at running again. Georgia’s top two African American elected officials, Attorney General Thurbert Baker and Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, would have to be considered top contenders in the Democratic primaries for governor or lieutenant governor if they chose to run.

As top officeholders crowd into the race for governor, that opens up other elected positions farther down the ballot to new contenders. If Cagle runs for governor, then you could see Senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson, Sen. David Shafer and Handel (if she passes up the governor’s race) running to replace him. Johnson could also take a look at the 1st Congressional District race if his old friend Kingston decides to run for governor. Shafer, who at one time was a deputy commissioner to Oxendine in the insurance department, would be a very credible candidate for insurance commissioner. This could also be the time for Democratic state senators like Tim Golden and David Adelman to give some thought to running statewide.

With Handel departing after one term as secretary of state, state Sen. Renee Unterman might consider running for that office (she planned to run in 2006 before personal problems intervened). Atlanta lawyer Gary Horlacher, who was kicking the tires for the last secretary of state’s race as a possible Democratic candidate, might be tempted to get in all the way this time.

The one person who stands to lose from Isakson’s decision is Perdue. He can’t run for governor again because of term limitations, and he would have been one of the leading contenders for Isakson’s Senate seat if Isakson had run for governor.

With Johnny staying put, however, there is no place for Perdue to step up after he exits the governor’s mansion in two years. It’s looking less and less likely that John McCain will choose him to fill the vice president’s slot on the Republican ticket this fall - and even if McCain did pick Perdue, there’s no guarantee that a McCain-Perdue combo would win in November.

That leaves Perdue with little to do besides go home to Houston County after he finishes his two terms in the governor’s mansion. Of course, since he’s done very little as governor, he should be well rested to take on whatever challenge comes next in his life. As for the rest - they’ve got an epic election awaiting them in the 2010 race for governor.

Tom Crawford

Tom Crawford is the editor of Capitol Impact’s Georgia Report, an Internet news site at www.gareport.com that covers government and politics in Georgia.